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This paper analyzes monetary policy in transition. It examines the dynamics of monetary policy in Mongolia using granger-causality tests for monetary variables and inflation. The paper also analyzes money demand using data from 22 Mongolian regions during 1993-1998. The analyses confirm the key role of monetary policy in stabilization and reveal that even in a transition economy as rudimentary as Mongolia, a stable money demand and a predictable relationship between inflation and monetary variables do exist. Hence market-based monetary policy is effective. In addition, the analysis points to a difference between transition and industrial economies in the elasticity of money demand with respect to activity, reflecting the larger role for transactions demand for money.
Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Demand for Money --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: National Income, Product, and Expenditure --- Money --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Monetary economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Demand for money --- Exchange rates --- Monetary base --- Personal income --- Prices --- National accounts --- Money supply --- Income --- Mongolia
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There is ample empirical evidence for developed economies that asset prices contain information about future economic developments. But is this also the case in transition economies? Using a panel of monthly data for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Slovakia, and Slovenia for the period 1994-1999 it is shown that historical values for interest rates, exchange rates, and stock prices signal future movements in real economic activity. This result has significant implications for policymakers, and a composite leading indicator based on the three asset prices is presented, which contains information about the future development of economic activity.
Finance: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: General --- International Finance: General --- Information and Market Efficiency --- Event Studies --- International Financial Markets --- Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions: Financial Economics --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic growth --- Investment & securities --- Finance --- Industrial production --- Asset prices --- Cyclical indicators --- Stocks --- Financial sector development --- Production --- Prices --- Financial institutions --- Stock markets --- Financial markets --- Industries --- Business cycles --- Financial services industry --- Stock exchanges --- Hungary
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This paper investigates whether there is a different impact from changes in "new" and "old" economy stock valuations on private investment for seven OECD economies. A vector autoregressive model is estimated for each individual country, using quarterly data over the period 1990-2000. We find that the impact from changes in valuations of new economy stocks to investment is roughly the same in North America and United Kingdom as in continental Europe. By contrast, the impact from changes in old economy stock valuations on investment is, in general, larger in North America and United Kingdom than in continental Europe. Finally, the results suggest that in continental Europe the impact on investment from changes in the valuation of new economy stocks is bigger than for old economy stocks, whereas for North America and United Kingdom the impact is more similar.
Finance: General --- Investments: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Stock markets --- Market capitalization --- Private investment --- Asset prices --- Stocks --- Financial markets --- Prices --- National accounts --- Financial institutions --- Stock exchanges --- Financial services industry --- Saving and investment --- United States
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The main finding of this paper is that the European Union (EU) countries fall into two broad groups according to the effects of monetary policy adjustments on economic activity. Estimates based on a vector autoregression model indicate that the full effects of a contractionary monetary shock on output in one group of EU countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, and United Kingdom) take roughly twice as long to occur, but are almost twice as deep as in the other group (Denmark, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden). The paper discusses the implications of these results for the effective conduct of monetary policy in the euro area.
Banks and Banking --- Econometrics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Vector autoregression --- Short term interest rates --- Monetary transmission mechanism --- Monetary policy frameworks --- Econometric analysis --- Financial services --- Monetary policy --- Interest rates --- France
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This paper quantifies the different impact of stock and house prices on consumption using data for 16 OECD countries. The analysis finds that the long-run impact of an increase in stock prices and house prices is in general higher in countries with a market-based financial system. The sensitivity of consumption to changes in stock wealth is about twice as large as the sensitivity to changes in housing wealth. Splitting the sample into the 1980s and 1990s shows that both countries with a market-based financial system and countries with a bank-based financial system moved toward a higher degree of responsiveness of consumption to changes in stock prices and house prices.
Finance: General --- Infrastructure --- Macroeconomics --- Real Estate --- Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Housing --- Finance --- Property & real estate --- Consumption --- Stock markets --- Housing prices --- Asset prices --- National accounts --- Financial markets --- Prices --- Economics --- Stock exchanges --- Saving and investment --- United States
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This paper examines the progress made in four Asian transition economies—China, Lao P.D.R., Vietnam, and Mongolia—to market-based systems. Overall, these economies appear to have had a more favorable experience with inflation stabilization and output growth than that of transition economies elsewhere. While initial conditions played an important role in determining the strategy and speed of the transition, growth performance benefited from continued macroeconomic stability and reforms in a key sector (such as agriculture); this confirms the need for sustained and rapid structural reforms and highlights the constraints for sustainable growth posed by weak financial and enterprise sectors.
Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Agribusiness --- Comparative Studies of Particular Economies --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Agriculture: General --- Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise: General --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Agricultural economics --- Public ownership --- nationalization --- Agricultural sector --- Public enterprises --- Structural reforms --- Disinflation --- Prices --- Economic sectors --- Macrostructural analysis --- Agricultural industries --- Government business enterprises --- China, People's Republic of
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This paper investigates if there is a different impact from changes in "new" and "old" economy stock valuations on private consumption. Estimating a reduced-form VAR for seven OECD countries for the 1990s, it is found that the impact from changes in old economy stock valuations on consumption is in general larger in the United States, Canada, and United Kingdom than in continental Europe. Furthermore, the impact from changes in new economy valuations to consumption is roughly the same in the United States, Canada, and United Kingdom and in continental Europe. Finally, the results suggest that in continental Europe the impact on consumption from changes in the valuation of new economy stocks is bigger than from the old economy stocks, whereas for the United States, Canada, and United Kingdom the impact is more or less the same between the two sectors.
Finance: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Stock markets --- Consumption --- Stocks --- Market capitalization --- Asset prices --- Financial markets --- National accounts --- Financial institutions --- Prices --- Stock exchanges --- Economics --- Financial services industry --- United States
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This paper explores the ability of portfolio and foreign direct investment flows to track movements in the euro and the yen against the dollar. Net portfolio flows from the euro area into U.S. stocks—possibly reflecting differences in expected productivity growth—track movements in the euro against the dollar closely. Net FDI flows, which capture the recent burst in cross-border M&A activity, appear less important in tracking movements in the euro-dollar rate, possibly because many M&A transactions consist of share swaps. Movements in the yen versus the dollar remain more closely tied to such conventional variables as the current account and interest differential.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Investments: Stocks --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Investment & securities --- Monetary economics --- Exchange rates --- Capital flows --- Current account --- Stocks --- Currencies --- Balance of payments --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Capital movements --- United States
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This paper uses new data and new econometric techniques to investigate the impact of international financial integration on economic growth and also to assess whether this relationship depends on the level of economic development, financial development, legal system development, government corruption, and macroeconomic policies. Using a wide array of measures of international financial integration on 57 countries and an assortment of statistical methodologies, we are unable to reject the hypothesis that international financial integration does not accelerate economic growth even when controlling for particular economic, financial, institutional, and policy characteristics.
Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Industries: Financial Services --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Finance --- Capital flows --- Capital inflows --- Stocks --- Financial integration --- Capital account --- Balance of payments --- Multilateral development institutions --- Financial institutions --- Financial markets --- Capital movements --- International finance --- Development banks --- Papua New Guinea
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This paper reviews and discusses issues involved in assessing the relationship between capital account liberalization and economic performance. First, it discusses the different measures of restrictions used in the literature. Second, it reviews the literature on the relationship between growth and capital account liberalization. Finally, it identifies and explains some of the differences in the results of the various studies and provides some support for a positive effect of capital account liberalization on growth, especially for developing countries.
Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International economics --- Finance --- Capital account liberalization --- Capital account --- Capital flows --- Capital controls --- Stock markets --- Balance of payments --- Capital movements --- Stock exchanges --- Malaysia
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