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Book
Monetary Policy in Transition : The Case of Mongolia
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ISBN: 1462366228 1452721041 1281604674 9786613785367 1451891733 Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper analyzes monetary policy in transition. It examines the dynamics of monetary policy in Mongolia using granger-causality tests for monetary variables and inflation. The paper also analyzes money demand using data from 22 Mongolian regions during 1993-1998. The analyses confirm the key role of monetary policy in stabilization and reveal that even in a transition economy as rudimentary as Mongolia, a stable money demand and a predictable relationship between inflation and monetary variables do exist. Hence market-based monetary policy is effective. In addition, the analysis points to a difference between transition and industrial economies in the elasticity of money demand with respect to activity, reflecting the larger role for transactions demand for money.


Book
Do Asset Prices in Transition Countries Contain Information About Future Economic Activity?
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462342876 145278051X 1281155810 1451898290 9786613777171 Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

There is ample empirical evidence for developed economies that asset prices contain information about future economic developments. But is this also the case in transition economies? Using a panel of monthly data for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Slovakia, and Slovenia for the period 1994-1999 it is shown that historical values for interest rates, exchange rates, and stock prices signal future movements in real economic activity. This result has significant implications for policymakers, and a composite leading indicator based on the three asset prices is presented, which contains information about the future development of economic activity.


Book
New Economy Stock Valuations and Investment in the 1990s
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462337872 1452792631 1281345725 9786613779298 145189631X Year: 2001 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper investigates whether there is a different impact from changes in "new" and "old" economy stock valuations on private investment for seven OECD economies. A vector autoregressive model is estimated for each individual country, using quarterly data over the period 1990-2000. We find that the impact from changes in valuations of new economy stocks to investment is roughly the same in North America and United Kingdom as in continental Europe. By contrast, the impact from changes in old economy stock valuations on investment is, in general, larger in North America and United Kingdom than in continental Europe. Finally, the results suggest that in continental Europe the impact on investment from changes in the valuation of new economy stocks is bigger than for old economy stocks, whereas for North America and United Kingdom the impact is more similar.


Book
The Real Effects of Monetary Policy in the European Union : What Are the Differences?
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462331718 1452738092 1282108646 1451902832 9786613801999 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

The main finding of this paper is that the European Union (EU) countries fall into two broad groups according to the effects of monetary policy adjustments on economic activity. Estimates based on a vector autoregression model indicate that the full effects of a contractionary monetary shock on output in one group of EU countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, and United Kingdom) take roughly twice as long to occur, but are almost twice as deep as in the other group (Denmark, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden). The paper discusses the implications of these results for the effective conduct of monetary policy in the euro area.


Book
The Impact of Changes in Stock Prices and House Priceson Consumption in OECD Countries
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462385435 1452713995 1281603147 1451890133 9786613783837 Year: 2002 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper quantifies the different impact of stock and house prices on consumption using data for 16 OECD countries. The analysis finds that the long-run impact of an increase in stock prices and house prices is in general higher in countries with a market-based financial system. The sensitivity of consumption to changes in stock wealth is about twice as large as the sensitivity to changes in housing wealth. Splitting the sample into the 1980s and 1990s shows that both countries with a market-based financial system and countries with a bank-based financial system moved toward a higher degree of responsiveness of consumption to changes in stock prices and house prices.


Book
Inflation and Growth in Transition : Are the Asian Economies Different?
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462301487 1452703817 1282110489 1451899491 9786613803375 Year: 1999 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper examines the progress made in four Asian transition economies—China, Lao P.D.R., Vietnam, and Mongolia—to market-based systems. Overall, these economies appear to have had a more favorable experience with inflation stabilization and output growth than that of transition economies elsewhere. While initial conditions played an important role in determining the strategy and speed of the transition, growth performance benefited from continued macroeconomic stability and reforms in a key sector (such as agriculture); this confirms the need for sustained and rapid structural reforms and highlights the constraints for sustainable growth posed by weak financial and enterprise sectors.


Book
Wealth Effects and the New Economy
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462330819 1451999569 1281345636 9786613779205 1451896239 Year: 2001 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper investigates if there is a different impact from changes in "new" and "old" economy stock valuations on private consumption. Estimating a reduced-form VAR for seven OECD countries for the 1990s, it is found that the impact from changes in old economy stock valuations on consumption is in general larger in the United States, Canada, and United Kingdom than in continental Europe. Furthermore, the impact from changes in new economy valuations to consumption is roughly the same in the United States, Canada, and United Kingdom and in continental Europe. Finally, the results suggest that in continental Europe the impact on consumption from changes in the valuation of new economy stocks is bigger than from the old economy stocks, whereas for the United States, Canada, and United Kingdom the impact is more or less the same between the two sectors.


Book
Exchange Rates and Capital Flows
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1462323618 145271486X 1282106244 9786613799593 1451905025 Year: 2001 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper explores the ability of portfolio and foreign direct investment flows to track movements in the euro and the yen against the dollar. Net portfolio flows from the euro area into U.S. stocks—possibly reflecting differences in expected productivity growth—track movements in the euro against the dollar closely. Net FDI flows, which capture the recent burst in cross-border M&A activity, appear less important in tracking movements in the euro-dollar rate, possibly because many M&A transactions consist of share swaps. Movements in the yen versus the dollar remain more closely tied to such conventional variables as the current account and interest differential.


Book
International Financial Integration and Economic Growth
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1462316581 1451991444 1282106295 9786613799647 1451901682 1451856555 Year: 2002 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper uses new data and new econometric techniques to investigate the impact of international financial integration on economic growth and also to assess whether this relationship depends on the level of economic development, financial development, legal system development, government corruption, and macroeconomic policies. Using a wide array of measures of international financial integration on 57 countries and an assortment of statistical methodologies, we are unable to reject the hypothesis that international financial integration does not accelerate economic growth even when controlling for particular economic, financial, institutional, and policy characteristics.


Book
Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance : Survey and Synthesis
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1462330746 1452751234 1282107232 1451899688 9786613800589 1451854285 Year: 2002 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper reviews and discusses issues involved in assessing the relationship between capital account liberalization and economic performance. First, it discusses the different measures of restrictions used in the literature. Second, it reviews the literature on the relationship between growth and capital account liberalization. Finally, it identifies and explains some of the differences in the results of the various studies and provides some support for a positive effect of capital account liberalization on growth, especially for developing countries.

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